Ranking Saints’ assets: Age, missed draft picks have taken a toll

Is the New Orleans Saints’ roster in better shape today than it was one year ago?

In one sense you could say yes, because they now have Derek Carr at quarterback in place of a question mark filling the most important position on the roster. Based on the way Carr played down the stretch, I consider that a genuine strength to build around.

However, Carr comes with a price tag of more than $30 million per year. And he turns 33 in March, which falls right in line with the biggest elephant on the Saints’ roster:

Almost all of their elite players are getting older, not better.

🆕: Can the Saints realistically follow the blueprint laid out by the Lions?📌: How will the Saints address the offensive and defensive lines this offseason?📌: What moves will Mickey Loomis and the front office make to clean up the cap?🔗: https://t.co/DkMIORiNeT pic.twitter.com/8Fr3gSMDYE— NOF (@nofnetwork) January 23, 2024

General manager Mickey Loomis rejected the notion the Saints’ age is a concern when I asked last week about an ESPN study that showed they had the oldest roster in the league in 2023, weighed by snaps played.

“I don’t look at it like we’re an old team, I really don’t,” said Loomis, who mentioned the names of rising young talents like Alontae Taylor, Paulson Adebo, Carl Granderson, Erik McCoy and “the receivers” (Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, A.T. Perry among them).

However, it’s impossible to deny Father Time is an issue with almost all of New Orleans’ core players. Demario Davis just turned 35. Cameron Jordan is 34. Taysom Hill is 33. Tyrann Mathieu is 31. Ryan Ramczyk is 29 and battling a chronic knee issue. And Alvin Kamara is 28 at a position where the mileage hits different.

Cornerback Marshon Lattimore is still just 27, but the possibility looms that he could be traded after two straight years of missing extensive time with injuries.

As a result, Olave was the only player in my top tier as I went through this year’s exercise of ranking the Saints’ roster assets.

I find this to be a valuable exercise when it comes to answering the most popular question that has surrounded this team ever since Drew Brees retired three years ago: Should they just tear it down and start over?

First of all, we know the Saints won’t do that. Their track record shows they believe in trying to contend every year. And although Loomis has said he would be willing if he ever “thought we were an awful team and had to rebuild,” he doesn’t feel that way about the current roster.

“I think we have the potential to be a really good team,” Loomis said last week. “Now, I thought that coming into the season, as well. But there are some things we have to do collectively and individually to get there. And actions are gonna speak a lot louder than any words, so we'll see how this offseason goes. But yes, I'm excited about the potential of our team, but we've gotta do it. We've gotta perform.”

Three years ago, I was totally on board with the Saints’ all-in approach because so many of those guys like Lattimore, Davis, Jordan, Ramczyk, Kamara and Michael Thomas were still in their prime.

The last two years, I was a little more tepid — but still on board with a win-now mindset because the Saints saw an opportunity to pounce in a vulnerable NFC South.

I’m still OK with the Saints trying to win the division in 2024 because I think they’re talented enough to do it. But because of their recent draft misses — and how many draft picks they’ve traded away while moving up for specific players — the need to restock the cupboard for the future has become more alarming than ever.

The top sections of this list need to get bigger and younger in a hurry.

NO ASTERISKS

• WR Chris Olave

You can debate whether Olave is the most talented or important player on the Saints’ roster. Lattimore, Davis and Carr are among other options. But Olave is the top asset on the team when you consider his age (23), his proven ability (two 1,000-yard seasons in two years), the fact that he’s still an ascending player and the fact that he’s still a great value heading into Year 3 of his rookie contract.

The most enviable teams in the NFL have several more players that check all of those boxes.

CORE PIECES WITH STRINGS ATTACHED

• CB Marshon Lattimore

• LB Demario Davis

• QB Derek Carr

• RB Alvin Kamara

• RT Ryan Ramczyk

• S Tyrann Mathieu

• DE Cameron Jordan

• QB Taysom Hill

The talent in this group is undeniable, and all could still be big assets in 2024. But they all come with expiration dates because of age or injuries. And none comes with a bargain price tag.

Lattimore is the one player who would absolutely stand alongside Olave in that top tier if there weren’t so many signs pointing to a possible trade. Then again, he might be the only other player on the roster besides Olave who could fetch a first-round draft pick back in a trade. So he still counts as a highly valuable asset even if he’s not in New Orleans’ long-term plans.

Carr could also earn his way into that top tier of assets if he continues to build off the success he showed over the final six weeks under the Saints’ next offensive coordinator.

OC search: Saints zeroing in on Sean McVay-Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. Here's whyhttps://t.co/s2OMn0kYu9— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) January 22, 2024

HIGH-VALUE PLAYERS

• C Erik McCoy

• LB Pete Werner

• CB Paulson Adebo

• DE Carl Granderson

• WR Rashid Shaheed

McCoy and Granderson both signed affordable extensions over the past 18 months, while the other three are still playing on rookie deals. All five have emerged as core starters for this team. None has reached a Pro Bowl or All-Pro level just yet (outside of Shaheed’s recognition as a kick returner). But they would be valued starters or key contributors on most NFL teams.

HOPEFULLY JOINING THAT LIST NEXT

• G Cesar Ruiz

• DT Bryan Bresee

• TE Juwan Johnson

• CB Alontae Taylor

Consistency is the key word with all four of these young players who have flashed the potential to be great assets — but need to prove they can keep delivering on it.

Ruiz, in particular, is right on the cusp of joining that previous tier. And he is still just 24 after he signed an affordable contract extension at the start of this past season.

New studio coming together pic.twitter.com/DNY8NkiSrp— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) January 23, 2024

YOUNG PLAYERS WITH POTENTIAL

• RB Kendre Miller

• WR A.T. Perry

• DE Payton Turner

• OT Trevor Penning

• S Jordan Howden

• DE Isaiah Foskey

Yes, I put Penning on this list even though his first two seasons have been a nightmare because of injuries, inconsistent play and a total reset that got him benched for most of the 2023 season. But the Saints will still try to get whatever they can out of the 2022 first-round draft choice in Year 3. So there is still a glimmer of hope, at least.

The same goes for 2021 draft choice Turner, who showed some enticing potential all summer before yet another injury sidelined him for most of the 2023 season.

The other four guys on this list were rookies in 2023 who flashed their upside — but way too limited of a sample size to categorize anywhere else. I could have added rookie QB Jake Haener and rookie offensive lineman Nick Saldiveri to this list, but they basically redshirted the entire season.

OTHER STARTERS/KEY CONTRIBUTORS UNDER CONTRACT

• S Marcus Maye

• RB Jamaal Williams

• G/T James Hurst

• TE Foster Moreau

• S/ST J.T. Gray

• DT Khalen Saunders

• DT Nathan Shepherd

• DE Tanoh Kpasaagnon

• WR Lynn Bowden Jr. (restricted free agent)

• FB Adam Prentice (restricted free agent)

• T/G Landon Young

• K Blake Grupe

• P Lou Hedley

• LS Zach Wood

Maye deserves to be in a higher tier. But injuries have stopped him just short of reaching that second tier. And his age (he turns 31 in March) keeps him out of the third tier.

NOTABLE UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS

• WR Michael Thomas

• T/G Andrus Peat

• QB Jameis Winston

• TE Jimmy Graham

• LB Zack Baun

• CB Isaac Yiadom

vDT Malcolm Roach,

• S Johnathan Abram

• S Lonnie Johnson Jr.

• DB Ugo Amadi

The only upside of being $80 million over the salary cap is the Saints won’t have to spend much to bring back any core free agents. They could actually lower the cap figures for the first three guys on this list if they re-sign them to extensions because they’re already on the books for dead money from previous bonuses.

I’m not sure that will happen in Thomas’ case, but it feels probably for Peat and maybe with Winston.

PROJECTED 2024 DRAFT PICKS

Round 1: Pick 14 (their own)

Round 2: Pick 45 (from Denver in Sean Payton trade)

Round 4 or 5: projected compensatory pick (David Onyemata)

Round 5: their own pick

Round 5: projected compensatory pick (Marcus Davenport)

Round 5: projected compensatory pick (Kaden Elliss)

Round 6: their own pick

Round 6: pick from Philadelphia

Round 7: pick from Denver

Not ideal for a team that needs to get younger. They lost their own second-rounder as part of their trade with the Eagles for an extra first-round pick in 2022. They swapped out their third-rounder while upgrading to a second-rounder in the Payton trade with Denver. And they sent their own fourth-rounder to Jacksonville last year while trading up to draft Haener.