Inside the training camp stats: What do the numbers say about where the QBs, WRs stand?

August 24, 2024 · 6 min read
Chris Olave caught 40 of Derek Carr's passes on 59 targets in training camp. Edwin Goode/NewOrleans.Football
Here are a few quick thoughts on camp before the team wraps up the preseason this weekend.
My favorite part of training camp is getting to the end and inputting all the data and seeing how all the stats come together. This process isn't perfect, but it does give a pretty good direction on which receivers are in favor with the starting quarterback and which ones are not. And usually – not always, but usually – those are the guys making the team.
There was one oddity that made me go through my notebooks twice, double-check, and then check one last time, and, yep … it's right.
A.T. Perry only had one catch from Derek Carr during team drills. Two, if you count a period where the offense went against the scout team defense, which was running Tennessee looks during a practice late in the week (and for the record, I don't count that. I put an X next to period in my notes because it didn't look real or feel real).
So, one … or two … from the guy who is the presumed third or fourth receiver. Granted, Perry didn't participate in three practices due to injury and was limited in another, but that almost seems impossible. He didn't even make a catch until Carr's 121st pass of camp.
Perry had a big play in the first preseason game and has had some nice moments with the backup quarterbacks. Maybe it won't mean anything, and Perry makes the team and ends up having a good season, but these numbers wouldn't make you think that he's on his way to being a key contributor.
Now, for a stat you love to see. Chris Olave caught 40 of Carr's passes on 59 targets. We've seen those two struggle to get on the same page a few times during preseason games, and the timing hasn't been perfect. But there were some moments in camp where their connection looked great, and that volume is what you want to see from a guy who will be the No. 1 receiver this season.
Olave could end up having a huge season this year, and I don't think it's out of the question for him to end up finishing in the top 10 in receiving yards, mostly because there isn't a ton of talent on this depth chart, and Carr should end up leaning on his favorite receiver. That's exactly what we're seeing in camp. It will be interesting to see if teams end up keying on Olave since the only other major threat is Rashid Shaheed's deep speed.
Alvin Kamara isn't going to get younger or faster or reach the end zone so many times in one game that he'll teach your kids how to count all of their fingers on one hand. But he could end up being a better fit for this offense, and he could end up having a much better statistical season than last year.
Here's one reason for optimism: Kamara missed six days of practice due to injury and still racked up 28 catches in camp, the second most on the team.
A bunch of those were checkdowns, which aren't a terrible thing in this offense. If you watch the 49ers play, this system can turn checkdowns into a weapon. But we also saw Kamara line up more out wide and in the slot than we did in camp last year, which could signal that this staff plans to use him more as a multi-faceted weapon.
That would be a good thing. That would be a great thing. That's a thing that should have never stopped after Kamara had so much success lining up all over the field early in his career.
Here are Carr's most targeted players in camp:
Chris Olave: 40-59
Alvin Kamara: 28-35
Jordan Mims: 17-20
Taysom Hill: 15-20
Foster Moreau: 15-19
Rashid Shaheed: 13-18
Cedrick Wilson: 12-14
Jamaal Williams: 10-11
Kevin Austin: 5-10
Bub Means: 4-6
Notes: Jordan Mims is absolutely making this team ... if the team doesn't find a way to upgrade the position another way. … Say what you want about Foster's production. Sure, it might get cut into with Juwan Johnson back from injury, but while his counterpart was out, Moreau took full advantage of the opportunity he had. He should see a bigger role this season. … Hard not to worry about the timing between Shaheed and Carr. Those two could have used more reps together. … Bub Means came on late and played well. He has a chance to be the No. 4 guy on this depth chart. … Hard to know what to make of Equanimeous St. Brown. He missed 12 practices and only caught two passes from Carr. ... I'm a little worried about how Shaheed will start the season given how much time he missed this summer.
The Saints will need to block, execute the offense as it is designed, build a running game, and make plays when things are messy and the hits are real, but the offense ended up having a pretty good passing camp against a good defense that was missing its two best corners for most of the summer.
Derek Carr completed 189 of 267 passes (you'll often see slight differences between people who do these stats. It Usually comes down to a different view on if a sack killed a play, pass interference, etc.). That's 70%, a number that is good by any standard. He did a really good job of taking the easy money, getting the ball out fast and timing shots down the field. You can see a really good throw distribution on his throw chart.
One of the interesting things is that he threw more to the left than the right. This is different from last year. Looking at the 0-20 range, Carr threw 90 passes to the left and 121 to the right last year. The scheme is going to change things, as will the way the quarterbacks get directed to read the field. Things are being done to make it faster and easier for Carr to get the ball out.
I showed this chart to a few people and one of the first things they said is that the Saints aren't pushing the ball down the field. I'm afraid I have to disagree with that. About 9% of the passes were down the field. Last season, about 8% of Carr's passes were down the field. Patrick Mahomes was at 9%. Jared Goff was at 7%. Brock Purdy was at 10%. Tua was at 11%. Josh Allen was at 13%. So, a pretty normal number.
Here's how the backup battle played out:
Jake Haener: 104 for 160
Spencer Rattler: 92 for 150
What's interesting is that Haener might honestly be the most aggressive out of all of the QBs. He wants to get the ball down the field, but if he's not, he's checking down.
This still ended up being pretty even in the end. Haener feels like the one who is most ready to enter the game as a backup, but Rattler has a ton of potential and should continue to develop. New Orleans is in a pretty good situation, no matter which way it goes. And who knows? If one of these guys has a huge game (positively or negatively), things could change.
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