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NOF Staff

NOF Staff

April 12, 2023 · 13 min read

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We are back in the war room for this week’s mock draft.

You know the rules by now. Mike Triplett and Nick Underhill make the picks for the Saints, while a draft simulator handles the rest of the league. This week, we used Pro Football Focus’ draft simulator and allowed trades to happen.

Here’s what we came up with:

First round, Pick 29

Gone: QB Anthony Richardson, QB Bryce Young, ED Will Anderson, QB CJ Stroud, ED Tyree Wilson, DT Jalen Carter, QB Will Levis, CB Christian Gonzalez, DE Myles Murphy, CB, Devon Witherspoon, OT Peter Skoronski, ED Lukas Van Ness, OT Paris Johnson Jr., ED Nolan Smith, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CB Deonte Banks, CB Joey Porter Jr., OT Broderick Jones, WR Quentin Johnson, RB Bijan Robinson, OT Darnell Wright, DT Bryan Bresee, TE Michael Mayer ...

(The Jaguars are on the clock at No. 24)

Nick: For a minute there, I thought Robinson might drop to No. 29, and we’d be able to cover this pick in one sentence. He’d be such a steal in that spot. But this does raise a question. We’ve talked on podcasts about trading up for a defensive end. What if Robinson is in that 20 range? Would you be willing to trade for him?

Mike: I would definitely consider it. I generally don’t love the value of a running back in Round 1 because I think the value is better at running back than any other position on Day 2 or Day 3 of the draft. But Robinson feels like a special talent who could be worth an exception, and I have running back among the Saints’ top five needs in this year’s draft. Still, he would have to fall close to No. 20, where it would only cost a third-rounder to move up. I don’t want to give up pick No. 40 — and I definitely don’t want to give up next year’s first-rounder — for anyone in this year’s draft. As I said on the pod, I feel like there are more long-term needs with this current Saints roster than in some years past where I didn’t mind them being hyper-aggressive.

One counter-argument for trading up, though. I don’t love the way this mock is falling for New Orleans. Almost all of the guys I’ve been highlighting are gone. And I don’t see any value picks falling into our lap.

Nick: Bresee and Mayer just went back-to-back. I’m willing to jump up for Dalton Kincaid, too. I don’t think it would cost a lot to go up a couple spots to make sure you get him, and I think he has a chance to be really good. Getting quarterback Derek Carr another Darren Waller doesn’t seem like a bad idea, and I might actually value that more than going after someone like Robinson now that we’re working through these scenarios.

I think we can wait and get a good running back later on, as you said. If we’re talking about trading up for someone who can be a top-tier offensive playmaker, the scarcity at tight end might actually make this a worthwhile consideration.

Do we make the call to the Jaguars? Doug Pederson is an old friend of the Saints. The trade value chart says we'd have to surrender the fourth to get this done.

Mike: In real life, I’d probably be hesitant. But the only other guy left in this tier for me is Pittsburgh DT Calijah Kancey, whom we took in last week’s mock. So in the spirit of variety, let’s make the move and see if we regret it later. I think we’re getting great value with Kincaid at this point in the draft, and we’re filling one of our top five needs by adding another pass-catching option in the middle of the field. The 6-foot-4, 246-pounder primarily lined up in the slot at Utah, and the Saints could use that kind of versatility. Consider him, in part, more insurance for Michael Thomas.

Dr. Robert Watkins recently sent a letter to NFL teams, fully clearing Utah TE and expected first-round pick Dalton Kincaid from the back injury he suffered last season. “Dalton Kincaid sustained a back injury while playing football on 11/26/2022,” said the email from Dr.…— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 12, 2023

The biggest downside of this pick is that he’s not a defensive lineman. But as we’ve been discussing in our NOF war room, we have a cloud of three or four defensive line options with similar grades after Kancey, and a few of them should last to pick No. 40.

Nick: I don’t love the value. Giving up the fourth feels like a big hit because there are so many holes on this roster. This trade means the team will need to sign a veteran to strengthen the depth chart at another position. And the Saints have done some good things in the fourth round, including drafting David Onyemata and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. They’ve also done bad things, like the selection of Rick Leonard.

I guess if someone is falling, getting back into the fourth by packing both fifths or by trading a future late-round pick along with a fifth. The barrier for re-entry is attainable. And if Kincaid ends up becoming Dallas Goedert, no one is thinking about the value of this trade. He’ll probably be an ineffective blocker at first, but his pass-catching ability is special. The combinations at tight end between Kincaid, Juwan Johnson, Adam Trautman and Taysom Hill could lead to some fascinating things on offense. The potential mismatches already have me excited.

I’m all in.

The pick: Dalton Kincaid

Second round, Pick 40

Gone: ED Will McDonald IV, WR Jordan Addison, DT Mazi Smith, DT Calijah Kancey, WR Zay Flowers, S Brian Branch, CB Cam Smith, WR Josh Downs, OT Anton Harrison, ED B.J. Ojulari, C Luke Wypler, OT Dawand Jones, LB Drew Sanders, ED Felix Anudike-Uzomah, OG O’Cyrus Torrence ...

Mike: I hate to lock us into a specific position here, but I feel like the Saints must add a defensive lineman with one of these first two picks. Frankly, I would rank defensive tackle and defensive end as their top two needs and wouldn’t blame them for taking one of each, considering the only sure thing on their current depth chart is Cameron Jordan — and he turns 34 in July.

The good news is we have a good variety of options who are graded in this range and fit the Saints’ height/weight mold. Georgia Tech’s Keion White is still on the board, and he's someone I would have considered at No. 29, had we not traded up. You could also talk me into Adetomiwa Adebawore, Tuli Tuipulotu or Isaiah Foskey among others.

Nick: I like Jahmyr Gibbs here a lot, but I’m going to stick to the plan and let value dictate our decisions at running back. Defensive line does feel like a dire need, and you can’t wait much longer if you want someone who can help this season. The biggest problem for me is I don’t love anyone who fits the profile of a Saints player here.

The #Saints conducted a private workout with UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet, per @AaronWilson_NFL. pic.twitter.com/9QjX3pSvVR— NOF (@nofnetwork) April 12, 2023

So, yes, that puts White on the board. And I don’t dislike him. I think he does some things well and plays hard. His ability to play both inside and outside is also appealing. I think my only real issue with him is that word “raw” comes to mind when watching him, and the Saints don’t have the best track record with developing raw pass rushers. But I do like drafting someone who needs growth more at No. 40 than I do in the first round.

Mike: Yeah, the profile reads an awful lot like both Marcus Davenport and Payton Turner. He’s 6-5, 285 with inside/outside versatility. And as you pointed out in your latest post on New Orleans’ draft tendencies, he has a relative athletic score of 9.92, which is sixth highest in the draft and first among defensive lineman. The only major difference is he began his career as a tight end, while Davenport was a converted WR!

But while some people might cringe at those comps, the biggest thing that has held back Davenport and Turner is injuries. That doesn’t mean the prototype itself is bad, and we know from talking to coach Dennis Allen, general manager Mickey Loomis and assistant GM Jeff Ireland that they still passionately believe in their size philosophy. White could rotate into the mix at either defensive end or defensive tackle in various packages, with the ability to develop into a long-term starter.

The pick: Keion White

Third round, Pick 71

Gone: G Steve Avila, CB Kelee Ringo, CB Emmanuel Forbes, TE Luke Musgrave, ED Adetomiwa Adebawore, TE Sam LaPorta, WR Jalin Hyatt, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, OT Matthew Bergeron, QB Hendon Hooker, TE Darnell Washington, LB Jack Campbell, LB Trenton Simpson, ED Tuli Tuipulotu, S Antonio Johnson, C John Michael Schmitz, Di Keeanu Benton, C Luke Typler, HB Zach Charbonnet, ED Isaiah Foskey, LB Daiyan Henley, CB Julius Brents, TE Tucker Kraft, ED Andre Carter, CB Tyrique Stevenson, WR Cedric Tillman, OT Cody Mauch, ST Siaki Ika, WR Rashee Rice, C Joe Tippmann ...

Nick: OK. You have to let me get my running back here. There are a bunch of good options, and when the draft actually happens, I think it would be hard to mess up a pick on a running back in third or fourth rounds. The guy I like here is one who just visited the Saints: Devon Achane.

The Texas A&M product is a legitimate home run hitter. You get Achane the ball in space or run him to the outside, and he can make things happen. There isn’t a ton of power to his game, but New Orleans has Jamaal Williams for that.

Mike: You’re preaching to the choir. Remember, just last week I was standing on the table demanding we take a running back in Round 4? (Again, tell Su I’m sorry about that.) I consider the position a borderline “must” in this draft, because the Saints need youth as much as they need depth with both Alvin Kamara and Williams turning 28 by this season. And as I said during the Robinson discussion in Round 1, I love the mid-round draft value for RBs. Throw in the fact that I think we’re getting great value here for Achane, who could’ve easily gone in Round 2, and this is my favorite pick of our mock so far.

My only regret is snubbing Tulane star Tyjae Spears for the second week in a row. But NOLA football fans can root for two teams on Sundays now.

The pick: Devon Achane

Fifth round, Pick 146

Nick: I didn’t love how this draft started, but things are actually starting to fall into place. Only really one place I want to go here, and that’s to Viliami Fehoko. He’s someone a team can plug in and get some production as a rotational defensive end. Is his ceiling super high? No, but the San Jose State pass rusher has at least some room for growth, and I think he should be productive in the NFL.

Taking a guy who had nine sacks and 19 tackles for a loss in the fifth round is about as good of a bet as you can make.

Mike: Works for me. I don’t want to reach for a defensive end in Round 5 just because it’s the top need on our board. The later you get in the draft, the more true that old “best available player” axiom becomes. But I think we’re doing both in this case, and he’s got just enough size to fit into the Saints’ DE prototype range at 6-3½, 276 pounds with 33-inch arms.

The pick: Viliami Fehoko

Fifth round, Pick 165

Mike: Guard isn’t a “must” in this draft, but it should be high on the wish list since starters Andrus Peat and Cesar Ruiz are both heading into the final year of their contracts. (I bet the Saints get something done with Ruiz, even if they don’t pick up his pricey fifth-year option, but it would be nice to have options regardless.)

Obviously, we can’t count on finding a future starter at this stage of the draft, but I do like the value here with LSU’s Anthony Bradford, who still has room to develop. He started primarily at right guard for the Tigers last year but also moonlighted at both right and left tackle over the past two seasons.

Nick: No arguments from me on this one, even though I feel like Purdue cornerback Cory Trice could be good value here. But I think this is one of those spots where, again, you have to let need win a tossup. I think taking a chance on a developmental player at a future position of need is good business, because, as you often say on our podcast, the draft isn’t a one-year event. Even if Bradford doesn’t develop into a Peat replacement, it’s worth the shot. At worst, you likely end up with quality depth by taking a player who has experience playing both tackle and guard.

The pick: Anthony Bradford

Seventh round, Pick 227

Nick: Well, well, well. Would you look at that. Maybe the value for Trice in the fifth round wasn’t as good as I thought it was. Any cornerback lasting this late in the draft is going to have long odds facing him, especially on a team with cornerbacks as good as Marshon Lattimore, Alontae Taylor and Paulson Adebo on the depth chart. But I’m willing to take my chances on a 6-foot-2, 203-pound cornerback with pretty strong man coverage skills.

The big knock on Trice is he doesn’t have much recognition in zone, which is going to have to improve if he wants to make it in the NFL. But the Saints have a pretty good track record at coaching up defensive backs, and maybe they could get the most out of Trice. There’s some upside here, and I’m willing to take a shot this late in the draft knowing full well that bottoming out chasing the ceiling is much more likely. But what else is the seventh round for if not for trying to get lucky on a prospect?

Mike: I’ll tell you what else the seventh round is for: finding players who can contribute early on special teams. That’s the best way for these guys to crack the 53-man roster. And Trice should have that potential as well.

The pick: Cory Trice

Using the Saints’ draft history to determine which NFL Draft prospects fit their prototype https://t.co/KEKIPISSBs via @nofnetwork— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) April 11, 2023

Seventh round, Pick 257

Mike: Speaking of special teams, I’m willing to bet on the Saints unearthing another dynamic receiver/kick returner in the mold of Deonte Harty and Rashid Shaheed, which feels like their newest specialty after so many years of dominating the undrafted RB market. So it’s just a matter of us finding the right one.

Nick: I can’t take credit for finding the guy since you had the idea of finding the best returner we could find. And it’s not just Harty and Shaheed. The Saints also found Marquez Callaway while researching the best returners in college football. Special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi has done a fantastic job of finding players who can contribute this way.

I’m not sure who that guy would be this year, but one who stands out to me is Kansas State wide receiver Malik Knowles. He’s dynamic.

Mike: Nine plays of at least 68 yards in his career (four kickoff returns, three catches and two runs). And one of just two players in Kansas State history to rank top 10 in career receiving yards, kickoff return yards and all-purpose yards along with Tyler Lockett.

Sold!

The pick: Malik Knowles

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