Saints film room: Breaking down Tyler Shough's game and what it will take for him to succeed

Tyler Shough has a chance. His arm guarantees him and the Saints that much.

How much of a chance? Who knows. That’s the question that has plagued NFL teams for the past 50 years. No one really knows. Everyone is betting and hoping when it comes to quarterbacks, and the perceived odds of someone making it are directly tied to the draft slot. This is a position where desperation drives decisions, and people are willing to take big swings and risk of missing if they feel the odds are above a certain point.

There are players such as Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy, of course. But the Aidan O’Connells, and Kyle Trasks and Will Levises are usually what you find outside of the first round. The guys who are good enough to stick around are usually only good enough to make a few spot starts and then fade into the background.

The safest bet in the world is that a QB taken outside of the first round never becomes one of the 25 best starters in the NFL. You don’t have to watch a single snap or look at a single snap to win most of those bets. Just short every single one and you’ll win most of the time. Shoot, even betting against a top-10 pick probably has close to the same odds as walking into a casino and immediately betting all your chips on black. It’s hard to pick the right QBs.

But Tyler Shough has a chance. Once you watch him play, you understand betting on him, even if you might want to wait to place your bet on someone with different odds. The logic of deciding he’s worth a shot is clear and obvious. The 25-year-old has a good arm. He’s 6-foot-5, has real speed (4.6 40-yard dash) and moves well enough outside of the pocket to extend plays and make off-platform throws. Depending on which version of him they’re getting, and how much the team is willing to expose him, the Saints also might be getting a guy with real running ability.

All of those things play in the NFL. All of them give him a chance. Kellen Moore just has to figure out how to put all of those things together and limit all the things that caused Shough to drop to the second round, which is easier said than done. But the problems aren’t hard to identify.

pic.twitter.com/Oy7GiX6JAB— Zola (@CoolClips504) April 27, 2025

Whether or not Moore and Shough can do that will determine not just success or failure for the Saints this season, but the direction of this franchise going forward. The Saints either strike gold or they’re soon back in the market. The process for answering that question now becomes the most interesting thing about this team during the next 12 months.

Before we get into sharing our takes, analysis and opinions on Shough, I think it’s important to realize that the Saints believed Shough was the second-best quarterback in this class and decided to target him over all other options. They could have drafted a number of other quarterbacks in that spot or bypassed all of them and went after one of the free agents or traded for a veteran player. Moore instead decided Shough was the right guy for his offense.

That means something, I think. That doesn’t mean that Moore can’t be wrong. But he’s a former quarterback turned coach who has worked with Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts. He knows something about the position, and I don’t want to overstate the commitment because Shough might simply be the best of the possible options, but he could have just decided to hold his cards and roll with Spencer Rattler. He chose to use a real asset on Shough. So, at the very least, there’s a specific vision in mind for this specific player.

So, now back to our analysis … It doesn’t take long to understand the bet, even if you don’t agree with it. Shough looks the part. He is the part. He’s tall and can see down the field, which will be a big change for the Saints, who haven’t had real height at that position* outside of the few games Jameis Winston started after Drew Brees left.

*Derek Carr and Andy Dalton aren’t short by any means. But both of them measured in at 6-foot-2 at the scouting combine. Shough is going to look different behind the line of scrimmage. Interestingly enough, he’s the type of guy who would be able to easily see over Trevor Penning if Penning plays guard.

One of the things that stands out the most on this tape is the type of offense Shough played in. He actually played under center and has play-action snaps, which can sometimes be impossible to find when looking at college quarterbacks. Shough looks in command at the line of scrimmage and had the ability to change plays. Knowing he can do these things and having ample evidence increases the odds of him being able to start Week 1, which has to be appealing for New Orleans, even if that isn’t the thing driving the decision. The other thing that’s impossible to miss is how shaky Louisville’s offensive line was last year. There were times when they made things rough.

Shough’s arm is good, a plus. It’s not rare or great, but it’s very good. He can make all the throws and has enough juice on passes to make tight-window throws. He has good accuracy and completed 60.8% of his passes last year, but that number jumps to 73.3% when you remove batted passes, dropped passes, throwaways (we’ll get to those) and spikes.

Hitches (34 for 48, 396 yards), crossers (28 of 43, 406 yards), outs (34 of 42, 390 yards), goes (11 of 31, 408 yards) and slants (15 of 17, 99 yards) were his most commonly targeted routes down the field last year. Shough was 81.3% on passes behind the line of scrimmage, 76% on throws 1-9 yards, 62.9% on throws 10-19 yards and 34.8% on everything else.

Shough can throw the ball from all kinds of different angles and can play off schedule, which is one of his big strengths. He also will aggressively rip apart zone coverage and attack the holes. He looks like a confident thrower, who has highs that are among the best of anyone in this draft class. While he can run, he often ran to throw last year.

It’s almost impossible to judge what Shough is right now as a runner. Louisville didn’t use him on many designed runs and so much of the offensive plan seemed to center on keeping him healthy. Back at Oregon, back before the injuries, there are some great examples of him running the ball. If that’s still on the table, there’s another level of value available that we didn’t see last season.

In an interview with Todd McShay, Shough explained that Louisville didn’t have many designed runs and that on scrambles, he learned to get the first down and do more to protect himself. Assuming there’s no risk of re-injury and reason to put Shough in bubblewrap, the Saints can get more out of his legs than Louisville did.

Shough is more like a Jared Goff or Kirk Cousins — a player who will need good protection to succeed — than dynamic playmaker. And having great protection might be the thing that determines how much Shough succeeds, especially if his downside — how he handles pressure — is something Moore can’t help him fix.

Shough throws the ball away a lot. I mean, a lot, a lot. There are 26 plays last season when he gets rid of the ball when facing pressure. Many of them are when he is facing a free rusher or turns and gets surprised by someone. He’ll drift away from it and toss the ball out of bounds or turf it. There are times when you start to wonder if he’s willing to risk a grounding penalty to avoid a hit. The quality of his offensive line also probably plays a part in this, but it’s something that looks like more of a reaction than a planned defense mechanism.

There are, no doubt, some that are cringeworthy. Most of them, on a one-by-one basis, you understand and can even justify. There are a few comically bad ones, and those have circulated on social media. But when you watch all 31 of his throwaways, including the 26 where he faced pressure, you start to see a pattern and it’s one that is going to need to be broken for Shough to have success.

Can this be coached away? Was Shough told to avoid sacks and just get rid of the ball at Louisville? Or is a guy who suffered two clavicle injuries and a leg injury worried about protecting himself? That last one might be an unfair question or even a lazy assumption, but it’s something you have to wonder.

Whatever the case, figuring out how to stand in the pocket or be more willing to take a hit in the face of pressure will be paramount to success. I think the thing that bothered me the most weren’t the plays he gave up on. It was the plays where he would throw the ball and kind of turn his back and brace for impact.

pic.twitter.com/iU0zddg8Zi— Zola (@CoolClips504) April 27, 2025

I’m reluctant to make a comparison here, and there are plays where Shough stands in the pocket and willingly takes a hit, which is important to keep in mind, but he doesn’t have the same fearlessness that Spencer Rattler has in that area of the game. And the juxtaposition between the two players in this area is something that stands out. There are many other categories where I expect Shough to prove he’s the better player, but this is one where Rattler has a significant advantage.

And, again, it’s not like Shough can’t succeed in these situations. He can extend plays. He can make plays when he’s getting hit. He has the arm and athleticism to make those things happen, like on this touchdown throw against Notre Dame.

Obviously a mixed bag under pressure, but the highs are this. pic.twitter.com/jlaRPMEepq— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) April 27, 2025

The problem is that he doesn’t do those things enough. Kellen Moore and his staff will have to figure out how to harvest the good and eliminate the bad. It doesn’t even have to get all the way in the right direction. Just eliminating the extremes would go a long way.

If Derek Carr is actually off this team or unavailable to play, Shough looks like the guy who should be able to step in and play right away. He’ll have to prove it in training camp, against the more experienced Rattler, but Shough wasn’t brought in here to watch someone else play. It seems fairly obvious the team felt the Louisville product is not only worth trying to develop, but also their best and most cost-effective path toward acquiring a player who can be their starter this season.

You can see how he has chance to be one of the outliers. He has the talent and athletic ability. He also seems to have the right coaching staff to help him get better and improve. Entering a situation that is completely blank and being built specifically for the new quarterback is also a very significant plus. There are no old playbooks to learn, no unwritten rules, no shadows to get out from behind. If Shough fails, it will simply be because he couldn’t make it work.

Everyone is going to have different opinions on who should have been picked or not picked, which path the team should have walked. But this is the one that is here now. And regardless of the results, New Orleans now has a highly-intriguing storyline to follow.

That’s at least going to make this team interesting.