Saints mock draft simulation No. 3: Should Tyler Warren be the betting favorite at No. 9?

So … has anything changed since our last mock draft?

Obviously the Derek Carr injury revelation dropped a bomb in the middle of the Saints’ offseason. But it didn’t really change the way Nick and I approached our third mock draft simulation – since we were already treating the quarterback position as a long-term must, and since we still don’t see an easy fit at pick No. 9.

So for the third straight week, we waited until Day 2 to draft a quarterback. But we did change things up in Round 1 this time.

ROUND 1, PICK 9

GONE: 1. QB Cam Ward. 2. CB Travis Hunter. 3. DT Mason Graham. 4. EDGE Abdul Carter. 5. OT Armand Membou. 6. CB Jahdae Barron. 7. OL Will Campbell. 8. WR Tetairoa McMillan.

NICK: I think Ashton Jeanty might be the best player in this draft, and he’s available on the board here. But I’m torn on whether or not that is the right pick if the board falls this way. I actually think the Saints should lean another direction because you aren’t getting another shot at a high-level tight end, and I think we can add a high-level back a little bit later.

Sometimes, I think, you can start to outsmart yourself when you think about the draft too much. We both really like Tyler Warren and we’ve both felt that way since early in the draft process. No need to make this one complicated.

TRIP: You surprised me with that choice because I know how special you think Jeanty is. And I wonder if you’d actually pass him up if this was our only mock. But since you landed Jeanty in our first mock, I agree with your decision to try something else this time – and I definitely agree with your reasoning. Besides, Jeanty will probably be gone by pick 9 in the real draft, so I think this gives us a better chance of actually nailing the pick.

Speaking of which, I’ve had a tougher time this year than most trying to hone in on one specific player to label as the Saints’ odds-on favorite at No. 9. As we discussed at length in last week’s mock, I don’t feel like they’ll love Shedeur Sanders enough to take him here. And I think there’s a good chance Jeanty will be gone. If I had to bet on one position, I’d bet on offensive tackle – but those odds could be sprinkled across Kelvin Banks, Will Campbell, Armand Membou and even Josh Conerly or Josh Simmons – especially if they trade down (which would still be my top choice here).

So that leaves Warren as my best bet for a player who both fits the Saints and has a chance to be available here. If I had to place a bet on one individual player here, I think he’s my guy.

NICK: Tight end is often a position that I think gets overlooked and undervalued, and it might just be because good ones are hard to find. But I don’t think there’s anything that quite changes the way an offense operates like an elite tight end. And I think Warren has a chance to be that type of player.

He has great hands, wins 50-50 balls and is good after the catch. He’s a decent blocker but could improve a little bit in that regard, and isn’t the most athletic player in the world. But he’s good at everything, great at some things and should be a building block for whatever team takes him. I’ve gone back and forth a little bit throughout the process between him and Jeanty, and I think if I were actually running the team that I’d have to go Warren here and circle back for the running back.

OUR PICK: TE TYLER WARREN, PENN STATE

ROUND 2, PICK 40

GONE: 10. RB Ashton Jeanty. 11. CB Will Johnson. 12. LB Jihaad Campbell. 13. EDGE Jalon Walker. 14. EDGE Shemar Stewart. 15. WR Matthew Golden. 16. QB Shedeur Sanders. 17. OT Josh Simmons. 18. EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku. 19. EDGE Mykel Williams. 20. WR Emeka Egbuka. 21. S Malaki Starks. 22. DT Kenneth Grant. 23. EDGE Mike Green. 24. OT Kelvin Banks. 25. G Tyler Booker. 26. WR Luther Burden. 27. DT Walter Nolen. 28. EDGE Nic Scourton. 29. OL Grey Zabel. 30. DT Derrick Harmon. 31. S Nick Emmanwori. 32. TE Colston Loveland. 33. OT Josh Conerly. 34. DT Darius Alexander. 35. EDGE James Pearce. 36. DT T.J. Sanders. 37. WR Elic Ayomanor. 38. RB Omarion Hampton. 39. RB Kaleb Johnson.

TRIP: I think we have to take Louisville QB Tyler Shough here for cover in both directions. It’s entirely possible the Saints consider Shough in Round 1 (especially if they trade into the back half). And it would be disingenuous for us to wait until Round 3 to manipulate the mock-draft simulators that haven’t caught up to the reporting on Shough’s draft stock.

I am tempted here by Iowa State receiver Jayden Higgins, even though we already added one physical pass-catching target in Round 1. And we have a lot of good cornerbacks to choose from here, including one I know you like in East Carolina’s Shavon Revel.

But I do think the Saints wind up taking a QB at some point in this draft – and I don’t think it’s an overreaction to the Derek Carr news to take one at this spot.

NICK: I think if the Saints had their choice of quarterbacks not named Cam Ward, that Shough would be their first choice over anyone else in the field. That’s just my feeling after reading all the signs this offseason. Take that for what it’s worth.

Honestly, if it were up to me and we weren’t allowing our decisions to be influenced by what we think they’d do, I’d probably punt on this quarterback class, draft Higgins, roll with Rattler and see where things stand next offseason.

New Orleans is potentially in a position where it can try its best to succeed and still successfully tank. I think that option should be on the table.

TRIP: I agree with you on rolling with Rattler if the alternative is trying to force a QB pick that isn’t worth the value. And I don’t have a personal conviction on Shough. However, we’ve both said that the best-case scenario for the Saints is that they find a quarterback they truly believe in.

I’d feel even better if they could truly wait until pick 40 to land that QB without feeling compelled to make a significant trade up. But I wouldn’t hate that either if they convinced me of their conviction. Nothing else matters until they get this position figured out.

OUR PICK: QB TYLER SHOUGH, LOUISVILLE

ROUND 3, PICK 71

NICK: New Orleans needs to find a way to add some talent at cornerback, and if they’re looking to compete this year, there are some veteran options on the market that could be appealing. But if you’re looking in the draft, the plug-and-play starters are gone, which means you have to take a little bit of a gamble to find someone who can play right away.

Benjamin Morrison has battled some injuries, but he has the talent to potentially be that type of player for the Saints.

TRIP: Corner feels like a fairly deep position in Day 2 of the draft this year. We could’ve considered Revel, Maxwell Hairston, Trey Amos and Azareye’h Thomas in Round 2, among others. But because of that depth, I think we could still find some talent here in Round 3 as well. That’s definitely true with the 6-0, 193-pounder, who would be drafted way higher than this if he hadn’t undergone season-ending hip surgery in October.

My only hesitation is that I wish we could’ve addressed the offensive line by now, and this is also a good spot to take a top guard, with Tate Ratledge and Jonah Savaiinaea still on the board. But I like the value with Morrison.

OUR PICK: CB BENJAMIN MORRISON, NOTRE DAME

ROUND 3, PICK 93

TRIP: We lost Ratledge, but Savaiinaea is still here. Based on our mocks, this has really been a good value round for guards. I know you also like William & Mary OT Charles Grant, who is still available. Seems like a good time to finally address the offensive line.

Savaiinaea began his career at Arizona as a starting right guard as a freshman. Then he became a starting right tackle – then he spent the last half of last season starting at left tackle. Guard is his most likely position in the NFL, but that versatility is a nice plus.

NICK: Building the offensive line is a smart move. I think it could be an option with the first pick, too. Kellen Moore has talked so much about how he believes in building from the line back, and I don’t think we should ignore that messaging.

OUR PICK: G/T JONAH SAVAIINAEA, ARIZONA

ROUND 4, PICK 112

NICK: This really does feel like a draft where you can just keep waiting and waiting and walk away with a running back you feel pretty good about. It’s an incredibly deep class.

TRIP: That’s a big part of the reason why I’ve been such a tough sell on taking Jeanty in Round 1 – even though I obviously acknowledge there is a huge dropoff at this point. We’re not getting a sure thing. I just like our odds of hitting on a fourth-round RB more than I do at some other positions.

We could mix it up, but we liked Georgia’s Trevor Etienne at this exact spot in last week’s mock, and I still like the well-rounded Southern Louisiana native this week.

OUR PICK: RB TREVOR ETIENNE, GEORGIA

ROUND 4, PICK 131

TRIP: If we want to stick with that local trend the Saints started in free agency, I see LSU defensive end and Vacherie native Sai’vion Jones at the top of our best-available list. And the value seems good here at the end of Round 4.

Jones projects more as a 3-4 end than a dynamic edge rusher at 6-5, 280. And the Saints have loaded up on those types this offseason as they transition to Brandon Staley’s 3-4 base defense. But we’re at the end of Round 4, so we’re just looking for long-term value picks at this point. And we definitely need to address the defense after only hitting it once so far in our first five picks.

NICK: I don’t know that Sai’vion Jones is someone who you draft and think that your pass rush is set, but he could be a good base-down end with some upside. He just looks like the type of guy you put on the edge in a three-man front and let him do his thing.

OUR PICK: DE SAI’VION JONES, LSU

ROUND 6, PICK 184

NICK: I’m drafting traits now and I see a 6-foot-4 receiver on the board.

TRIP: Three straight mocks where we’ve found three different big-bodied receivers with potential that we like around this stage of the draft. Hopefully that bodes well for the Saints’ chances of finding some receiver depth. Dont’e Thornton didn’t put up crazy numbers at Tennessee, but 600 yards and six TDs isn’t nothing.

OUR PICK: WR DONT’E THORNTON, TENNESSEE

ROUND 7, PICK 248

TRIP: You know I’m ready to go punter here for the third straight mock. But I’ll start working the phones aggressively this time instead – as long as you’ll let me dangle a big enough guarantee to the top undrafted punters!

Ohio State DB Jordan Hancock feels like a great value at this stage. The 6-foot, 195-pounder played both nickel corner and safety at the highest level of college football. Plus, the Saints’ smartest draft strategy over the past two decades has been drafting Buckeyes. So we have to take a player from Ohio State at some point in a year when they’re expected to threaten the record of 15 players drafted from one school, right?

NICK: Works for me. Versatile player, can do a little bit of everything. Not sure you get a ton of value out of the nickel flex if things work out at corner and Alontae Taylor is playing on the inside, but New Orleans needs to start trying to find depth and future options at safety, and I like taking a shot on an Ohio State guy.

OUR PICK: DB JORDAN HANCOCK, OHIO STATE

ROUND 7, PICK 254

NICK: Darren Rizzi was amazing at finding returners who end up working out at wide receiver. I believe Phil Galiano will keep that pipeline flowing. LaJohntay Webster is a 5-foot-11 receiver from Colorado who has serious return ability and can also contribute in the passing game.

He sure sounds familiar.

TRIP: If they don’t take someone that fits that profile in Round 6 or 7, they’ll surely make one or two of them a priority as a UDFA. Makes perfect sense.

OUR PICK: LAJOHNTAY WESTER, COLORADO