Saints Offense Seeks Uptick In Yards After The Catch

Someone on Derek Carr's PR team should get tasked with repeatedly posting the blind taste test of quarterback stats on social media.

We all saw the season, so we know that context matters. But, man, if someone really stood 10-toes down on his stat line and didn't give up an inch, it's hard to argue against it. All someone would have to do is post stuff like this all day long and watch people try to argue intangibles against a tangible stat line.

They would just have to go: Which of these stat lines is better?

Quarterback A: 65.1% passing, 241.1 yards, 1.5 TDs, 0.53 INTs per game, 93.2 QB rating

Quarterback B: 66.8%, 230.9, 1.5, 0.6, 91.0

Quarterback C: 68.4%, 228.1, 1.4, 0.47, 97.7

Depending on what you value, the answer is either A or C. You go A if you value more yards and more touchdowns, and you don't mind a slight uptick in interceptions. You go C if efficiency is everything that matters. Quarterback B existed somewhere right in the middle.

So, who are they? A is Justin Herbert, B is Joe Burrow and C is – gasp! -- Derek Carr.

Now, context does matter, and the problem with Carr's stat line is that we saw the season. There were a ton of games where you'd look up and he'd have great numbers, but nothing about the performance reflected it.

You might be wondering where I'm going with this.

Stick with me for a second. I promise there's a point, and we aren't doing this to gaslight people into believing that Derek Carr is Joe Burrow. He's not. You'd take Herbert and Burrow over Carr 100/100 times, as well as a bunch of other guys who play the position. There's no comparison, though it is time for Herbert to cash in on his perceived potential and win some games.

The point is that Carr probably didn't stink as bad as his biggest detractors say, but he also wasn't as good as anyone who would dabble in statistical manipulations would have you believe.

One number on his stat sheet tells the whole truth. All the other numbers around it suggest that there should be some major inflation in this depressed statistic.

Carr averaged 4.5 yards after the catch per completion last season. That number ranked 30th in the NFL. Of course, that stat is partly quarterback-dependent. Someone could improve their rate by consistently throwing great passes that led players into space. But we did look at this earlier this year and found that the Saints offense hasn't done a great job of putting players in space to succeed, regardless of the quarterback. Drew Brees was about as surgical as they come, and he averaged 5.4, 5.3 and 5 yards after the catch per completion the last three years of his career.

Carr had, by far, the worst level of help throughout his career after the catch. Here are his numbers from the last several years:

2018: 5.2

2019: 5.9

2020: 5.6

2021: 5.3

2022: 5

2023: 4.5

If that number goes up to 5.5 and Carr does everything else exactly the same as last year, that would add another 375 yards to his stat line and take him up to 4,253 yards for the season. That might seem like a lot, but maybe it's not. Just look at the other Shanahan offenses around the league. Tua Tagovailoa got 5.6 yards after the catch per completion. Brock Purdy was at a staggering 6.7. C.J. Stroud got 5.5.

That's what a Shanahan offense does. We talked to Willie Snead, who spent the past two years with the 49ers, on a recent podcast, and he thinks that life is going to get a lot easier for Carr moving forward because this offense is so well designed, and he said the check down is usually wide open.

"If you do find your check down, it's probably wide open, probably more often than not," Snead said. "If it's not open, there's something behind it that's wide open, that's gonna be an explosive."

Willie Snead spent the last two years in San Francisco. He thinks life is going to get a lot easier for Derek Carr and the QBs in New Orleans.Full show: https://t.co/gqvGyU75N3 pic.twitter.com/XNGxiDxkce— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) July 16, 2024

Wait. We're talking about check downs? Loose change can turn into big money when there's space to operate.

"People want to say, 'Oh, he's going to the checkdown?'" Snead said. "Yeah, bruh. It's part of the concept. If they drop, underneath, the seven, he's gonna go down to the flat and pick up 10 yards. That's the nuance of the offense."

You know what happens to Quarterback C when you add the theoretical bump in stats? Here are the updated lines:

Quarterback A: 65.1% passing, 241.1 yards, 1.5 TDs, 0.53 INTs per game, 93.2 QB rating

Quarterback B: 66.8%, 230.9, 1.5, 0.6, 91.0

Quarterback C: 68.4%, 250, 1.4, 0.47, 97.7

C is tough to argue against.

But again, context matters. Carr must to do many things better to improve his game and exist in a spot where you don't have to play games with numbers to trick people into picking him. He needs to help himself while also getting a little more help from his offense.

But some help can only, well … help. And if the offense does its part, at least half the battle will be solved, and the rest will be in Carr's hands.

With eyes watching.

His name on the jersey.

Plenty of expectations, and everything in context.