What does the future hold for Ryan Ramczyk, and how does that situation impact the draft?

A few weeks have passed since we learned the New Orleans Saints are preparing for the 2024 NFL season as if right tackle Ryan Ramczyk is not going to be available.

The news was shocking. Privately, optimism was being expressed about Ramczyk's recovery and his ability to come back from knee surgery. At the NFL Scouting Combine, those sentiments were even shared publicly. No one was bracing for impact because there seemed to be minimal turbulence if there was turbulence at all. And then the news about Ramczyk hit — and hit hard.

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In the moment, the weight of coach Dennis Allen's words didn't fully register. If Ramczyk wasn't going to be good to go this season, and the team already knows that as early as March, things must be bad. And if things are that bad now, what will make them better a year from now?

The following statement could be incredibly pessimistic and premature, but: It might be wise to assume that Ramczyk will never play again. If he comes back, fantastic. But the current reality of the situation is bleak, and New Orleans can't take half-measures in its quest to fill the void at right tackle. The Saints need to be aggressive, and if they end up replacing Ramczyk this offseason, and he winds up being able to play this season, so be it. If the end isn't here for Ramczyk, it's near, and this team needs to make sure it doesn't get caught hoping for the best.

I got caught doing that with my NFL Draft analysis. I started to dismiss guys who looked like they could only be right tackles or could have trouble transitioning to the left side. My thinking was that the bigger hole was at LT, that the team needed long-term options there if Trevor Penning doesn't get up to speed and that maybe a stopgap could plug the hole at RT until all the information came back.

But I now realize that was a foolish way to look at things. What I should have been thinking and saying two weeks ago was this: Ramczyk is in bad shape, and New Orleans must replace him this offseason with a long-term option.

So, instead of going "meh" at guys like Taliese Fuaga because he can't play on the left side, we need to acknowledge the need might be bigger on the right. At least there's still a chance Penning figures things out. The Saints only have an option on the right side right now if something significant changes with Ramczyk, and that doesn't seem likely.

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New Orleans doesn't have the picks needed to really revamp its line and address other needs. The team picks at 14 and 45 and then not again until the fifth round. Contractually, however, the Saints are actually in as good of a place as they could be with this one.

Ramczyk's reworked contract might not have foreshadowed anything. He might have simply agreed to cut his contract down from $17 million to $6.5 million, which was the amount guaranteed, out of some level of self-awareness. Maybe Ramczyk knew there was a chance his knee might act up, and he wanted to be fair to the organization and make sure he was earning his money and not holding anyone back if his health didn't cooperate (the full writeup of Ramczyk's contract is still not available. It remains possible he has incentives to earn back lost money).

But it's also possible everyone knew the end was on the horizon and that Ramczyk might be hanging out for a year and seeing how things go and was aware retirement might be in this near future. Just being practical about how we're analyzing the situation, not deciding right now is the best course of action for the Saints.

Ramczyk has $39 million remaining on his contract that must be accounted for, and if he were to retire now, that full amount would count against the 2024 salary cap. New Orleans has about $9 million in cap space, so the team literally cannot afford a retirement right now. If Ramczyk retired after June 1, the team would take on $11.6 million in dead money this season and could kick the rest to 2025. When you figure in a new player taking Ramczyk's spot on the roster, the savings to his $12.4 million cap number are minimal.

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If Ramczyk determines he can't play, it would probably be most beneficial if that realization didn't come until after the 2024 season. At that point, the team could renegotiate Ramczyk's $18 million base salary and take it down to the minimum, and he could retire after June 1. Ramczyk doesn't have any guaranteed money on his 2025 salary, so the renegotiation would clear up more than $16 million in cap space the team could use in March. Then New Orleans could split up the remaining $27 million that needs to be accounted for over two seasons.

If good news is unlikely, no news is the best thing here for the Saints. Quietly letting this play out with an honest effort and then re-evaluating in January makes the most sense for everyone.