How the Saints pair up against the Jets, and where things stand for New York heading into Sunday's game.
The General: The New York Jets are coming off a 33-18 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Jets (3-9) last seized victory the week prior with a road win against the Texans. Their other two victories came against the Titans (Week 4) and the Bengals (Week 8). Gang Green is led by first-year head coach Robert Saleh, who spent four years as the defensive coordinator of the 49ers prior to coming to New York. The Jets are 2-4 at MetLife Stadium this season and have lost their last three in front of the home crowd. According to Caesars Sportsbook, the Saints are currently 5.5-point favorites on Sunday.
Injury Updates: Saleh announced Monday WR Corey Davis is out for the season and will undergo Core Muscle surgery. RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (ankle) & rookie CB Michael Carter II (concussion protocol) remain day-to-day.
Scouting the Offense: The Jets offense, led by first-year coordinator Mike LaFleur, has struggled to consistently produce this season. The overall outlook of this offense is centered around the play of rookie No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson. Wilson has flashed at times, including Sunday against Philadelphia, but has also shown lots of room for improvement. It hasn’t helped his cause that he hasn’t been able to stay on the field, which has hindered his ability to get in a rhythm and consistent routine leading the offense. Sunday’s outing against the Eagles was his second straight game since returning from a Sprained PCL in his right knee, which caused him to miss the previous four games.
In the eight games Wilson has suited up this year, he’s amassed 1,539 yards, 6 TDs and 11 INTs, while having a completion percentage of 58. Sunday’s performance against the Eagles was one of his more well-rounded games of the year, as he went 23-for-38 passing with two TDs and one interception. His 83.9 rating is his second highest of the year. Wilson has the arm talent to make all the throws necessary, but his mechanics are inconsistent. He does not throw with a consistent base or arm slot, leading to accuracy issues. He has also struggled reading and processing what defenses are throwing at him, which is a common struggle for many rookies, but it’s been clear on film he hasn’t yet adjusted to life as an NFL QB.
The situation around Wilson, both in terms of weapons to get the ball to, and the attempted rebuild of the offensive line, is a work in progress as well. Up front, the Jets have been without their best player, left tackle Mekhi Becton has been out since Week 1 due to knee surgery. Saleh said Monday there’s no update on Becton; It seems unlikely he will return against the Saints. When/if Becton returns, the potential is there for this unit to be a pretty good one, as center Connor McGovern and RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif are fairly steady players, while left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, a first-round pick, is an ascending talent.
Injuries have also derailed the Jets skill players as well. Rookie RB Michael Carter was just starting to get in a rhythm when he suffered an ankle injury Week 11 vs. the Dolphins. He was placed on injured reserve on Nov. 27 and is not eligible to return against the Saints. The Jets are rolling with three veteran runners right now in the form of Tevin Coleman, Ty Johnson, and Austin Walter. They definitely miss the well-rounded run-pass skillset of Carter, who brought some life to the Jets backfield prior to the injury.
Carter isn’t the only rookie who has made an impact, though. Rookie receiver Elijah Moore is the skill player the Saints need to key in on Sunday in New Jersey. Moore, the team’s second-round pick in April, has shown some difference-making traits in his rookie campaign, as he is a fast and elusive player that’s a real challenge to tackle in the open field. The Jets have been creative about how they get him the ball, as he has a rushing attempt in three consecutive games. Especially with Corey Davis now out for the year, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Saints give Moore a lot of attention Sunday, as he’s the weapon that’ll put a lump in your throat when he catches the ball.
Scouting the Defense: No matter how you slice it, this Jets defense has been amongst the worst in the NFL this year. Saleh has taken a lot of criticism for their play, which was expected to be better given his defensive background. Per Radar360, the Jets defense ranks last in the league in both points allowed (30.7), and yards allowed (396.8). They don’t appear to be making much progress, either, which is also concerning. Their performance against Philly was not a good one, as they allowed Eagles backup Gardner Minshew and the offense to hang 33 points, 418 yards and convert on third down 6 of 13 times.
One thing that was puzzling about the Jets coming into the season from a team-building perspective was their blind faith in their young cornerbacks, and their conscious decision to not upgrade the group with veteran help. The Jets drafted three corners in April, using two fifth-round picks and a sixth-round pick. The only other players on the roster entering the year were undrafted rookie Isaiah Dunn and second-year pros Javelin Guidry and Bryce Hall. Guidry and Hall certainly flashed as rookies in 2020, but not enough to warrant the confidence the Jets obviously had in them. Cornerback is one of the tougher positions to play in football, especially for younger players. Flash forward to December 2021, and the Jets, to no surprise, still have an issue at cornerback. Hall and Guidry man the outside spots, while rookie fifth-round pick Michael Carter II plays the nickel. This is a game where it especially hurts the Saints not to have Michael Thomas, as the Jets can be attacked on the perimeter. Guidry is an undersized cornerback with questionable instincts in both man and zone. At times he guesses and gets beat when WRs are getting into their breaks, and he’s grabby in man coverage. Out of 103 CBs in the league with at least 300 snaps, Guidry ranks 75th in overall grade, per PFF.
The Jets run defense has been an issue as well so far this year. They are third worst in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (133.4 YPG). It’s also clear the offense isn’t helping the defense, as it’s been common for teams to get out to a lead and maintain it by running the ball, causing the defense to tire. Defensive tackle Folorunso Fatukasi is a player for Saints fans to watch and keep note of, as he is a free agent this offseason at a position of need for New Orleans. He’s very heavy-handed in his ability to knock interior lineman back and reset the line of scrimmage. This will certainly be a challenge for Erik McCoy, who will commonly have Fatukasi lined up over him. With matchups to exploit both on the ground and through the air, it will be interesting to see if a stagnant Saints offense can finally generate some production. With Kamara having a chance to come back as well as Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk, this is a perfect opponent to draw in their quest to regain some offensive momentum as they head down the stretch.
Scouting the Special Teams: Coordinator Brant Boyer is in sixth season leading the Jets special teams, and is highly respected across the league. Boyer is now on his third-different head coach since he’s been with the team. The glaring hole with the Jets special teams is kicker, which has also been a problem since the start of training camp. Monday the team signed Veteran Eddy Pineiro, who replaces Alex Kessman. Kessman kicked in his first career NFL game Sunday against Philly and missed two extra points, calling for the immediate change. Pineiro is the third kicker to play for the Jets this season. Per Michael Nania, since the start of the 2019 season, the Jets rank last in the league in missed field goals/extra points and extra-point percentage. Saints fans, rest assured, you aren’t the only one frustrated with kickers.
Punter Braden Mann is a bright spot for the Jets, as he is one of the top young punters in the sport. A sixth-round pick in 2020 out of Texas A.M., Mann returned to the team from injured reserve Nov. 13, after missing seven games. In the return game, Braxton Berrios does a nice job, ranking fifth in the NFL in both punt return average (13.6) and kick return average (28.9). Former Saint Justin Hardee is a top cover specialist for the Jets, and continues to produce at a high level as he has for many years.
Matchup to Watch: Saints skill players vs Jets linebackers/secondary
As alluded to at the end of the defensive preview, this feels like a perfect opportunity for the Saints offense to gain some confidence and put some positive stuff on film. This is a key matchup because as depleted as the Saints are offensively, this is a Jets defense that can be attacked at the second and third level. Can the Saints get good performances from their skill players? Obviously getting Kamara back would be a huge piece to this puzzle.
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