Untitled

News, notes and observations about the Saints and NFL.***premium***

TAYSOM DEAL: Seeing the real numbers on Taysom Hill's new deal will be interesting.

Everything I've heard about it makes it sound like the precedent for the base, four-year, $40 million deal were tight ends. That would likely make someone like Austin Hooper, who signed a similar deal with the Browns, the blueprint. Odds are Hill will see most of his guaranteed money in the first two years of the deal.

While there is upside if Hill ever ends up being a quarterback, and he might even get another shot at it at some point this season, one has to wonder if this new deal signifies a more significant commitment to the joker role for the player.

While there will always be a lot of noise outside of New Orleans about Hill and the role he plays, keeping him around makes sense, and he does carry value. The difficulty is quantifying what he is worth. Would someone else have beaten out an offer of $30 million over four years? The team and Hill's representatives probably have a good feeling for the market, even if the numbers seem a little high on the surface.

RUN DEFENSE UGLY: Cam Jordan didn't even let me finish the question about what he was taking from last week's loss from the Eagles before answering it.

"Do you know how many learning lessons there are out of 79 snaps in that game?" Jordan said. "There's plenty of areas that we can improve on. Some areas that we thought we were better in. For them to run for 244 yards on the ground – it's embarrassing."

In short, the league's top run defense did not look like the league's top run defense. There were a staggering amount of mistakes during that game, some that felt uncharacteristic. Many of them were also unique to the Eagles due to their scheme, but there were enough issues with gap integrity on all of the plays to let this defense know it needs to refocus itself.

New Orleans is up against another quarterback who can run, albeit not in the same manner as Jalen Hurts. But the Saints will need to be aware of what Josh Allen can do as a scrambler and when extending plays. So, one of the bigger issues for the defense in recent weeks – allowing explosive passing plays – will be at the forefront, perhaps even more than the run defense.

OFFENSIVE LINE ATTRITION: There's no wonder the offensive line struggled last week, and it is going to take a lot to get things back on track this week. But it isn't just those guys. Everyone is involved here, and you can see the inexperience.

Last week, there was a play where it looked like Cesar Ruiz completely blew a block and let a blitzer get right on Trevor Siemian. But the truth is, the protection was set for the quarterback to be responsible for the free runner. Some of these things need to get cleaned up and will with experience.

Terron Armstead looks on track to play this week, which helps offset the loss of backup tackle Landon Young. Still, the team will likely be without Ryan Ramczyk again and is already down Andrus Peat. The sheer number of injuries to this group is baffling.

PLAYOFF ODDS: The website FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Saints a 33% chance of making the playoffs this year. Eight other NFC teams currently have better odds.

This week, a win against Buffalo would improve those odds to 49%, while a loss knocks them down to 21%. But those odds could only be temporary. A loss followed by wins over Dallas and the Jets would improve the odds to 47%.

But here's how critical this stretch of games will be: Two losses during the next three games move the odds below 20%. Losing winnable games against bad teams has now created pressure for the Saints to find a way to win against good teams. This team is now feeling the pressure of squandering opportunities.

DID YOU KNOW?: Siemian has completed 19 of 25 passes for 196 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions when trailing in games with less than four minutes remaining. While it is great he is excelling when trying to bring the team back into games. He needs to start having more success elsewhere. A prime example of this is his quarterback rating by quarter. He's at 33.8 in the first, 86.5 in the second, 67.9 in the third and 121.5 in the fourth.

The team has to start faster to have a chance to win.

A NEW HOLE TO FILL: There is no doubt that Adam Trautman was at times inconsistent and made too many mistakes. But he was emerging as Siemian's favorite target and making progress as a receiver. Last week, the tight end played the best game of his career, catching five passes for 58 yards and a touchdown before suffering a knee injury that will likely keep him out of action for at least the next month.

So, New Orleans needs to find another way to cover a loss on offense. Nick Vannett recently returned to action and should see increased action moving forward. After signing with the Saints, Vannett said that Sean Payton sees him as someone who can be a factor in the passing game despite not contributing much in that aspect at other stops.

The Saints also have Juwan Johnson at that position. He's a little bit limited as a blocker, but has made plays in passing situations, especially early in the season. Johnson fell out of favor for whatever reason and has been a healthy scratch in two recent games.

One way or another, this team needs to find more contributors at a time when many are not available. One this is becoming clear: Rebuilding the offense is going to be a tall task this offseason.

INGRAM SITUATION: Mark Ingram's injury doesn't currently sound like a major situation, but these situations are always fluid and it depends on how an injury responds throughout the rehabilitation process.

From what I've heard, Ingram's knee flared up after the last game, and the initial hope is that he'll be able to recover from it. So, if things go well, not a big deal and he’ll be back soon. If not, and it gets worse, New Orleans will have another situation to manage.

Ingram has been a huge addition to this team. He's played with good burst and has consistently made plays. The running back averaged 5.5 yards per carry last week against the Eagles.

Anyway, this could be a big week for Tony Jones Jr.

PRO BOWL VOTE: The Saints are doing OK in the initial round of Pro Bowl fan voting, but some guys might need a stronger push to get selected for the game.

Terron Armstead currently leads all players in votes at offensive tackle. Fullback Alex Armah (third), Jordan (eighth), Deonte Harris (fifth at return specialist) and Alvin Kamara (seventh) are also in the top 10 at their respective positions.

The Saints have always put a ton of players in the game. This year could buck the trend unless a handful of players get more support behind their campaigns.

SITE NEWS: Elite members should look for an invite next week for an upcoming video chat about the Saints. I think we're looking to do it after next Thursday's game. It's been suggested to me to hold them in the evenings during the week instead of Saturday morning. I'm planning to go that route unless there are strong feelings for keeping it on Saturday.