
This looks like the end.
It has to be, at least of something.
The Saints and Mike Thomas have to change their reality. None of this is anyone's fault. Injuries happen. Situations change. Everyone is frustrated and wants something different, but the fact is Thomas landed on injured reserve Thursday and will almost certainly not return, meaning he'll have played 12 games over the last three seasons, including playoffs.
The wide receiver might still be outstanding when he finds his way back to the field. He looked great when he played this year despite being unhealthy for two years. But he's also going to be 30 years old when he steps into a camp next year, and if you think about it, Justin Herbert was playing quarterback at Oregon the last time Thomas finished a season healthy.
That next camp could be in New Orleans. There is little doubt the Saints are a better team with a healthy Thomas, and there is no question that it would sting if he got healthy after all this time and became a star again somewhere else. There is no fault here. Thomas followed medical advice on his toe injury and has been rehabbing as directed. But he isn't back on the field, and won't be for a while. Something has to change.
After missing all this time, there is simply no way New Orleans can let him stay on the books next season with a $15.5 million salary and a $28.2 million salary-cap charge. Not for a maybe, which is all Thomas is right now, and not after how the last three seasons have gone. When you're allocating that much of your cash flow and salary cap to one player, that player has to offer some type of guarantee of production, and that simply isn't possible for Thomas to do right now.
The Saints could always restructure Thomas' contract to lower his number and hope for the best, but that would be an almost unfathomable outcome at this point and would be extremely hard to defend. This team needs to be closer to winning a Super Bowl to justify such a high-level gamble.
So, that means one of three things needs to happen. Either Thomas agrees to a pay reduction, the team releases him or he gets traded.
IF THOMAS TAKES A PAYCUT
The Saints could do a new contract a few different ways. One of them, of course, is to just straight up reduce Thomas' base salary to something more in line with what's fair for a player who hasn't been healthy in years. The deal could stop right there, or New Orleans could add incentives to allow him to make back some of the lost base salary.
Andy Dalton on Michael Thomas being placed on injured reserve today. pic.twitter.com/p8tFpU8uSV— NOF (@nofnetwork) November 3, 2022
The good thing about the bonuses is that, since Thomas hasn't played in a long time, they would be set at amounts that exceed his 2022 production and therefore be deemed "unlikely to be earned" and could not count against the 2023 salary cap. They'd move against the 2024 cap if earned. Some agreed-upon resolutions could have benefits for all parties.
The other outcome is that Thomas and the Saints agree to part ways, which now feels like a realistic possibility.
IF THOMAS IS CUT OR TRADED
New Orleans can't really afford to just outright cut Thomas. Doing so would result in a dead-money charge of $25.45 million. The way around this would be to designate him as a post-June 1 cut, allowing the Saints to spread the hit over two seasons. The charge in 2023 would be $11.813 million, with nearly $14 million counting against the 2024 salary cap. A trade would work the same way, and getting something back for Thomas, which is very possible, would be better than getting nothing.
The only problem with the June-2 deal is that the Saints must carry the full amount of Thomas' cap charge, which is $28.2 million, on the books until June 1. On June 2, the number drops to $11.813 million. This would have to be the way the Saints go if they choose to cut or trade Thomas. A post-June 1 move would give New Orleans the space it needs to sign its draft class and potentially some veteran free agents. The only problem is the added budget wouldn't help much during the height of free agency.
THE CREATIVE SOLUTION
There are also creative ways to manipulate the cap, but the player must agree to work around the numbers. If Thomas is getting cut, New Orleans could decide to do that right now and approach him about lowering his $15.5 million base salary since he isn't getting it anyway, which would lower his overall 2023 cap charge.
Sound confusing? Think about it like how Drew Brees and Malcolm Jenkins agreed to lower their base salaries before retiring after June 1 to help the team's cap situation. Thomas could essentially get cut on paper before he's actually cut.
How would this work? Maybe New Orleans could give Thomas something like a $1 million signing bonus to drop his 2023 base salary down to the league minimum before the end of the season, since he wouldn't be getting that money anyways if he gets cut. If you got that $15.5 salary down to $1.65 million, Thomas would only count around $14.3 million against the cap next offseason before a move gets made instead of $28.2 million. This maneuver would help with either a trade or release, but it would require a drop-dead date clause in the new deal to ensure a move happens and Thomas doesn't get stuck playing on a cheap contract.
That approach may be a little farfetched, but this is a creative front office, and something has to give here.
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